Why'd they do it?
22.11.07 - election day -2: Everyone seems to have a theory for the decline and putative fall of the Howard gang. Among the reasons advanced are: WorkChoices (the government's industrial relations laws that appear to be biased towards the employer); climate change (and the government's inaction on it, and its refusal to sign the Kyoto agreement); the silly plan for Howard to stand as leader with a plan to hand over the reins of power to Peter Costello (who is not universally liked or wanted) some time in the next term; the high proportion of young voters choosing the ALP; and the accumulated detritus of 11 years of government (including non-core promises, misleading campaigns, ministerial irresponsibility and hubris) leading to an "It's Time" expectation. History will undoubtedly settle on one or all of the above. But for me there is a much stronger reason and, ironically, it's the same cause that thrice led to Howard's re-election: the hip-pocket nerve. Howard has previously annexed the aspirational voters of the outer-urban fringe by appealing to their (enlightened) self-interest, offering rising house prices, low interest rates and improving employment conditions (at least for the mature and for men) - almost all of these occasioned not by government policy but by factors uncontrolled by the government. The past eleven years have seen a massive rise in borrowings (and a concomitant rise in the level of net national debt), but also a similar rise in the value of family's assets. Now, six successive interest rate rises, the threat of lower income (and possible unemployment) arising from SerfChoices, and the vanishing possibility of house purchase by their children has taken the gilt off the gingerbread for the aspirationals. This is reflected in a Taverner poll reported in the press the weekend before the election: in 2004 mortgage holders in Sydney and Melbourne were polled as 56-44 in favor of the coalition; in 2007 the same poll shows the situation as 43-57 - a thirteen point turn-around. Any ALP victory can be ascribed to this statistic alone, and the mortgage holders are undoubtedly motivated by the impact of policy on their squeezed financial resources.
Election 2007
E-day - 1730: The triennial federal bloat fest is over for another cycle. Like the recent NSW State Election, I am again outside Sydney for the count of the national vote. This time we are holidaying at Tathra (see below) in the essential swing seat of Eden-Monaro. I note that the next beach up the coast from us is Gillard's Beach - and that may be an omen. As I sit down to watch the count, the polls in the eastern states are due to close in 30 minutes. We did our bit - spending part of the day handing out how-to-vote leaflets for the Greens in the very pro-coalition booth of Tura Beach - a seaside golf-centred retirement community about 15km south of Tathra and just north of Merimbula. (Some days later: As it turned out, the Green vote in that booth increased by 1.5 per cent, 3 times the average across the electorate. On the principle of post hoc ergo propter hoc, I conclude that Cath and I did our bit to assist the rise in Green votes and, through preferences, the election of MIke Kelly, the successful ALP candidate in Eden-Monaro.)
E-day - 1745: Until the last few days, I have been confident of an ALP victory in the election - for the good psephological reasons outlined lastish in Necessity - Hill of Beans. Then yesterday both Galaxy and Newspoll showed a late 2 per cent swing back to the Tories (and Labor on 52 per cent Two Party Preferred [TPP]), while Neilsen showed a 3 per cent swing to Labor and 57 per cent TPP. Very confusing, especially as the polls were showing different trends. If you view those polls through the lens of putative margin of error, it is likely that the Labor TPP is in the 53-54 range, enough for it to win. We will have to wait the count to see which pollsters have a face full of yolk.
2030: Looks like Galaxy and Newspoll were closer, and Neilsen is wearing the omelet, but the actual vote was somewhere north of the worst predictions, around 53 per cent TPP, and it will be enough for Labor to win - by how much I don't know yet, but I suspect they'll win at least 20 seats - more than enough since they require 16 to hold a majority. It looks like the boring man has proved to be right all along.
2230: After some to-ing and fro-ing, it's Kruddy with about 53 percent TPP and probably 85 seats in the 150 seat Parliament. After 21 successive ALP victories in the states and territories, the federal team has come to the party. The most senior Tory politician left in Australia is the mayor of Brisbane. Although you might well argue that Kruddy is the most senior conservative leader. The former prime miniature has not only lost government but seems to have lost his seat of Bennelong - and that may have been the sweetest loss of all. What a shame that he and Hyacinth will have to abandon their waterfront grace and favor residence at Kirribilli. I suspect that she, in particular, will need to be dragged kicking and screaming from the place.
2358: The Senate situation shows that no group has control, and that the ALP will have to rely on the Greens and independents to get things through, but it will be hard for the Libs to block Labor's IR initiatives, and othe rmatters that they ran hard on, with the threat of a double dissolution hanging over the Liberals' heads. A double dissolution, on the most recent figures, would almost certainly give the Greens the balance of power in the Senate. It certainly would not seem to provide the Australian Democrats with much hope: as expected they lost their last four Senate positions and were very much among the also-rans in the race.
E-day+2: It's been an interesting start to the new Australia, most particularly on the Liberal side, with Peter Costello's decision not to contest the leadership throwing everything into contention. Uncle Tom Cobley and all seem to have decided to nominate for leader or deputy and a donnybrook of epic proportions seems to be imminent. Costello never had the backbone to challenge Howard for the leadership, even when it was his for the taking; never had the bottle to quit the frontbench and run a guerrilla campaign, as Keating did in the early 1990s; and now doesn't have the stomach for the hard slog of opposition. That leaves the door open to Malcolm Turnbull, who has the right credentials in areas like the republic and climate change to challenge Kruddy for the centre. The party will fare worse if it decides to elect either Abbott (far too conservative) or Nelson (we don't quite know what he stands for - although it may be argued that such policy ambiguity did not hurt Kruddy). It could be fun in politics for the month leading to Xmas, with the Krudites claiming as much acreage on the high moral ground as possible and the Libs having a massive bunfight. It will prove to be much more interesting than the coming cricket series against India.
A brief analysis of the results is interesting and confirms the validity of the election pendulum, which shows the seats likely to fall with a uniform swing. Swings one way or another are never uniform: they vary from state to state and region to region. The national figures show a TPP swing of about 5.7 per cent to the ALP. This should have resulted in a gain by Labor of 23 seats. At the moment it looks like Labor will win 25 and lose 2 in WA. So, despite the swings and roundabouts, the pendulum was pretty spot on. Labor won 15 of the 17 seats that would fall with a swing of 5 per cent or less (Wentworth in Sydney's eastern suburbs and Stirling in Perth were the two to defy the trend). Additionally it won 1 seat in NSW and 6 in Queensland that required swings between 6.7 and 11.5 per cent. There are two other Queensland seats in doubt, both in the 7-9 per cent range.
E-day+6: The Libs lost the education debate during the election and Labor is seen as well ahead in this area. Ironic then that the last two Education Ministers from the Howard era are the new leader and deputy of the party. They went for Nelson, the man who seems less threatening. It will be interesting to see how that works out. I suspect that, with Abbott and Turnbull behind him, Nelson will feel some instability in the ranks. I also wouldn't rule out an eventual challenge from his new loyal deputy Julie Bishop.
Great moments in litrachoor
Doris Lessing has won the Nobel Prize for literature. Those who dislike mainstream authors using SF and then denying the genre must be gnashing their teeth as a mainstream writer who dabbled in SF has become the first genre writer to win the award for a lifetime of writing. However it was not her brief flirtation with speculative fiction that draws my interest. In 1984 she submitted manuscripts to her own publisher under a pseudoplume. They were rejected as unpublishable. The conclusion that she drew was that new authors find it difficult to get a look in because the industry is biased towards established authors. A more reasonable conclusion for the same evidence, based on the employment of Occam's Razor, which posits that the simplest explanation is likely to be the correct one, is that, for most of her career, her books were published on the basis of her name only, not the intrinsic quality of the material. It's not that the publishing industry is biased against new authors, it's that it is biased in favor of established authors, because they are easier to promote. Ms Lessing's SF series, The Canopus in Argos: Archives Series, was published between 1979 and 1983 with no notable impact on the genre.
Great moments in history
An email I sent to some friends, and some members of ANZAPA on 5 November 2006:
"Remember, remember the fifth of November.
Gunpowder, Treason and Plot. ..."Today is the day to pledge never to forget the modern origins of urban terrorism and religious fundamentalism. And to learn the lesson of historical amnesia.
Guy Fawkes represents the worst excesses of dangerously violent religious fanaticism: an uncaring attitude towards whether their actions would impact on the innocent lives of those caught up in their misguided devotion to religion. It is not religion, per se, that is at fault, but individual's misguided actions in its name.
It is well to remember that it was the English who provided us, 402 years ago today, with the archetype of the modern terrorist, during a period sometimes recognised as a "Golden Age" of enlightenment. If one person's terrorist is another's freedom fighter, the mythical posthumous journey of Guy Fawkes from violent religious bigot to quasi-hero is a prime example how one can blend into another, and the historical figure is forgotten. Far from "entering Parliament" with "honest intentions", Fawkes' only intention was homicidal.
That is why:
"... I see no reason why Gunpowder Treason
Should ever be forgot."
Great moments in irony
That's how I like my irony. Nicole Kidman was going into court to testify against a paparazzo, who is suing a media outlet. Her evidence was that his pursuit of her had been so intense that she had feared for her life at times. And what was on the telly that night: images of our Nic, surrounded by hordes of paparazzi and television news cameras as she entered and exited the courthouse, amply demonstrating a reason for her apprehensions. And missing from the pack was Jamie Fawcett, the cameraman who is the centre of the legal action, and her bete noir.
First written: November-December 2007
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