TLAs
I'm in a quandary: is the correct TLA for the current brou-ha-hum GFC (global financial crisis), as a journalist mate Adrian McGregor insists? Or should it be more properly WEM (world economic meltdown) or IFT (international fiscal tsunami)? Admittedly the last is a bit arcane and the GFC appears to be the cliché of choice amongst the cognoscenti in the blatherings. Whatever the label, the impact appears to be worse than most predictions, and the impact is not being greatly ameliorated by the actions taken by most central banks and by most world governments. At this stage Australia has apparently escaped the worst, but not by much, largely because our financial system has been better regulated than most - despite the best efforts of the free marketeers to eliminate all such regulation. This means our banks have fewer "toxic assets" (that's "liabilities", isn't it?) on their books. It may be that the Hanrahans are right and that the worst is still yet to be seen. Certainly, the Obama administration has not covered itself in glory so far in its actions in the economic area, even allowing for the fact that it needs to carry the dead weight of European centralism through the crisis.
It is embarrassing for various governments that the bail-outs have not checked the excesses of executive greed. In the US, AIG, the insurance heavyweight that bears, with four or five other major financial institutions and with the absence of proper US government oversight, the main guilt for getting us into the GFC, has used part of its bail-out to fund a couple of hundred millions in 'bonuses' to its upper echelon. There was a time when such bonuses were performance-based. If that were still the criterion, the executives of AIG, Lehman Brothers, the Royal Bank of Scotland and a few others would be paying money back to their companies, instead of gouging them for unearned bonuses. Now we're told they are 'retention bonuses', aimed at retaining talented employees. Well, if the account books of the financial institutions like AIG represent the talents of these executives, I would not be trying hard to retain them.
In Australian corporate recipients of government largesse have not thought it necessary to repay that support with policies that might benefit the economy, rather than their own perceived short-term bottom-line. Pacific Brands, makers of Bonds et al, have led the way by sacking 1800 workers, despite being supported by the government, and the ANZ Bank's response to tax-payer support has been to export 500 jobs to India. The less said about Telstra, as it gears up to issue Sol Trujillo with his golden parachute, the better.
In the case of such corporate gonifs, the governments should ask for our money back. At least for the length of the GFC.
Premier Premiere
March 21 was the day on which Australia first elected a female State Premier (perhaps more pedantically a genuine "Premiere"). Admittedly Clare Martin and Rosemary Follett have previously been chosen Chief Ministers by the electors in the several internal territories (although Follett was ever a minority leader relying on some wingnut independents to form government in the ACT House of Assembly), but none of the distaff candidates for State Premier have previously been successful. When the Queensland electorate decided to give Anna Bligh an absolute majority in its unicameral Parliament, they set a precedent. And it was not easy for Bligh. Since the previous election, the Queensland ALP had lost its incredibly popular leader, Peter Beattie; the conservative parties had decided not to fight each other for once but had combined to form a single entity, the Liberal National Party (LNP); and the polls indicated that the GFC would take its toll on the governing party (while polls had predicted a narrow victory for the conservatives, the end result was well within the 2-3% margin of error occasioned by the number of respondents interviewed). But the polls did not take into account that Bligh out-campaigned the Tory leader Lawrence Springborg, especially in the crucial area of finance. The final swing was less than 4% and about 10 seats changed hands. Bligh will have over 50 seats in the 89 seat Parliament and the LNP still needs a further 12 seats to form government without reliance on independents. Once again, the conservatives have failed to convince a state electorate that a tired government should be replaced - even in the face of the down-grading of the State's financial rating and challenges to its budget. Given that Anna Bligh is committed to the introduction of the most swingeing changes to freedom of information laws, based on a report by former journalist David Solomon, her election is a good thing for the greater availability of information on government activities.
Everyone talks about the weather ...
In January unprecedented floods ensured that our trip to Fiji was delayed, as noted lastish. While we were there (see report below), the horrendous fires in Victoria raged. The size of the devastation and the number of deaths shocked us. We're used to regular catastrophic bushfires in Australia but our fire fighters have been getting better and better as containing them and limiting the loss of materiel and, especially, the loss of life. But not this time and not in these circumstances: temperatures of a scale unprecedented, combined with high winds and dry conditions, meant that the impact of the fires, and the speed with which they descended on townships, was so much worse than could be imagined. And the blame-the-greenies ideologs were quick to assign guilt: it was inadequate clearing that was the cause, as if the fires in that heat, and with those winds, would have been arrested by more back-burning. On the other hand, there is some justification for the assertion that climate change may have played some part. Rises in average temperature lead to greater risk of bush fires. Changes in climate lead to more severe weather conditions - such as the combination of wind speed and temperature. As average temperatures continue to rise, there comes further increased risk of even more severe fires in south-east Australia. And worse ...
Current theory is talking about a climactic 'sweet spot' over the past 10,000 years, the era coinciding with the rise, and flourishing, of human civilisation. In that period, the temperatures have barely deviated more than 1 degree above or below the mean, as the image published here suggests. But we are about to cross the 1 degree deviation above the average line and the temperature should continue to rise, unless something dramatic is done. The Ruddite solution of an emissions trading scheme that gives too much to the polluters and sets the absolute minimum standards for reduction in greenhouse gases will not suffice - lest we see the line continue as the IPCC predicts.
... if only to deny it's there
In an opinion piece published on February 15, 2009, in The Washington Post, climate change denier George Will argued that the Arctic sea ice has not in fact contracted. "According to the University of Illinois' Arctic Climate Research Center, global sea ice levels now equal those of 1979," he wrote.
This was based on a January 1 blog on the Daily Tech website, which Will cited without checking its facts. According to the Arctic Climate Research Center itself:
We do not know where George Will is getting his information, but our data show that on February 15, 1979, global sea ice area was 16.79 million sq. km and on February 15, 2009, global sea ice area was 15.45 million sq. km. Therefore, global sea ice levels are 1.34 million sq. km less in February 2009 than in February 1979. This decrease in sea ice area is roughly equal to the area of Texas, California, and Oklahoma combined.
It is disturbing that The Washington Post would publish such information without first checking the facts.
Even more disturbing is that this piece of misinformation now forms part of the panoply of citable, but inaccurate, arguments by the climate change ostriches.
Dismal scientists v anti-Hanrahans - 12 rounds; no decision
The figures from the December quarter showed negative growth in the Australian economy and the likelihood, almost certainty, that by the end of March 2009, we will be officially in a recession - nine months later than the Hanrahans suggested, but a real genuine 'bagel' nonetheless. If only everyone could be as optimistic as Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens we might believe our way out of the mess we're in. On February 21, he said that Australia's economy is showing resilience and will ride out the GFC better than other countries.
Stevens said economic growth would be weak in the near term, however, he was relatively upbeat about Australia's prospects later in the year. "There are reasonable grounds at this stage to think that the Australian economy will come through this very difficult episode - certainly not unscathed, but well placed to benefit from a renewed expansion."
"Things will be difficult over the next year. But as I have said before, the long-run prospects for Australia have deteriorated by as much as we may all be feeling just now."
Waiting for the end of the world
The signs are replete that just when you thought it was safe to go back to the millennium without fear of further apocalyptic predictions, it's time to think again. I've just finished reading Tom Holland's wonderful Millennium, which looks at the (western) world from about 950 through 1100. Based on their interpretation of the Revelation of St John the Divine, the most controversial and least sensible book that ended up in the bible, the expectation was that the coming of the anti-Christ, heralding the second coming would occur one thousand years after the first. Hence there was a sense of panic as the Christian era clock ticked over to 1000. When things looked bleak but not terminal, a quick reinterpretation led believers to suggest that 1033 was the fateful year for the anti-Christ to arise, a millennium exactly after the death and resurrection of JC. That too didn't quite work out, so the starting point for the thousand years became a moveable feast. And lest you think that only Christians have end-of-the-world visions, Holland makes clear that similar ideas occur also amongst Jewish and Moslem philosophers. Mind you, the people of the tenth and eleventh centuries CE could be forgiven for their certainty that the end was nigh. Western Europe was beset by challenges of all sorts, including the depredations of the Norsemen, the victories in the east of the Turks, the arrival of the Berber fanatics in Al-Andalus, forestalling and reversing Christian gains in Iberia, the continued presence of threatening heathen hordes in middle Europe, the rise of the castellans and their attendant equestrian outriders, and seemingly terminal battles between the secular head of Roman Europe and his religious counterpart.
Similarities will occur to many in looking at the world today, beset as it is with religious and cultural conflict, economic catastrophe, the rise of terrorism and the place being found in many religions for extremists of all colors. Millennial thoughts will come naturally. The Millennium Bug was a technological expression of this form of end-of-the-world thought. More frightening are those in all the Religions of the Book who see the current conflict in West Asia as the predicted precursor to the final battle between good and evil (if only they could agree on who is who). Given that we appear to have survived the year 2000 (I cannot completely leave behind residual solipsism or the possibility that Descartes' "deceitful demon" has tricked me into believing that the world is continuing despite its actual end), I suggest you batten down some hatches in anticipation of predictions that 2033 has been blocked out as the time for the second coming and/or Armageddon.
After all, the signs are all around you.
From the oval office
The world of sport comes everyday to reflect the worst aspects of human society.
- Extremists have used the Sri Lankan cricket team for target practice in the Pakistani city of Lahore, probably the nastiest blot on sport's escutcheon since the Munich Olympics.
- The Rugby League season is barely underway and already there've been several episodes of excessive drinking, accusations of sexual assault and a player beating up a sponsor at a club launch.
- The Australian Rules comp hasn't yet restarted for the year as I write this but the bean counters and pea-hearted bureaucrats that run the game with no respect for its traditions and folkways are changing the laws to remodel the game in a way that doesn't improve it and are operating in ways that undercut the loyalty of the fan base in several locations.
- The world of USAmercian sport continues to be degraded by continuing accusations of drug-enhanced performances in athletics, football, baseball and cycling, among far too many sports.
- Bad behavior becomes the norm rather than the exception among professional sportspeople, especially those of the male persuasion.
And, yet, there are a continuing flow of good news stories, whether it be 'Tiger' Woods' comeback after injury or Craig Newitt riding a winner immediately after being informed of his father's death, or the inspiring tales of obstacles overcome in pursuit of excellence, or the exemplary conduct of championships such as the recent Women's Cricket World Cup, or the contributions made by sportspeople of all stripes to the appeals for the victims of the recent bushfires.
In particular I should note the return to the LPGA winner's circle of the best golfer Australia has produced, Karrie Webb. Although she has won more Majors than Peter Thomson and Greg Norman combined, she rarely gets publicity. She happened to win in the same week that "Tiger" Woods won his comeback tournament and an average Aussie (male) pro, Matthew Goggin, won entry into the US Masters. So her win, and the genuine emotion she showed at the result, got little coverage. She certainly got noticed in this Oval Office.
More than in any other arena of life, sport throws up as many good stories as it lays out yarns of human venality, idiocy, incompetence and tragedy. Perhaps it is that inspiration that keeps me interested despite the behavior of the noisy minority.
"wingnut" - a brilliant USAmerican coinage derived from 'right wing nuts', used to describe the froth-at-the-mouth conservatives who are replete in their body politic.
First written: April 2009
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