Reasons for Optimism
For most of this year, the people have expressed through a plethora of opinion polls a view that they are sick of being governed by a man who resembles a boring suburban solicitor. They have expressed the collective view that they would rather put in charge a government headed by a man who resembles a boring suburban dentist. Throughout the year, there has been the expectation that the polls would "even up", that the 10-20 per cent margin in favor of the ALP would come back to a margin more manageable for the Tories. It hasn't happened. Instead the polls (and we're talking about four separate organisations, with a variety of questions and questioning techniques, all showing very similar results) have continued to average around the 56 per cent Two Party Preferred (TPP) for Labor. Let me explain of those who are unsure: in Australia we use a preferential voting system; in theory everyone votes (in practice about 5 per cent don't mark their ballot or, in other ways, cast an informal vote) and each ballot records the voter's preferences in order. TPP indicates the result when all parties other than the main two have been eliminated and their preferences distributed. On the basis of the 2004 election and a subsequent redistribution, the ALP needs a uniform vote of just over 52 per cent TPP across the country to win enough seats to form government. A uniform 54 per cent TPP would result in the ALP holding 87 of the 150 lower house seats and 56 per cent TPP would mean about 96 seats for Labor. Of course, swings are never uniform and it is likely that the swings will be greater in some states than in others.
The question is: are there reasons for the optimistic view that the poll results foreshadow an end for the Howard gang? In true Kruddy fashion (he has perfected the technique of not waiting for a question but posing it himself and then responding immediately: "Do I ask myself questions? Yes I do. Does this make me look silly? Well, some of the time. Will we win government? Only if we continue to be a humble and listening team."), I think that the answer is "Yes", for several reasons.
- The most recent poll data show that 60 percent of respondents are definitely going to vote for the party they now favor, 30 per cent are likely to, and only 10 per cent reckon they might change their mind. That means on the 55 per cent TPP on that poll, the ALP most likely starts with 49 per cent of the vote (in the absence of some major campaign gaffe or another Tampa or 11/9) and the Libs need to win 8 out of 10 of the might-change-my-mind group to survive. All things being even, the Tories are unlikely to persuade that many.
- The deeper trend within the Newspoll figures, in their quarterly analysis, shows that the swing to the ALP since the last election is 8.3 per cent in marginal seats (ie those with less than a 6 per cent swing needed - there are 23 of these); there is an 11.6 per cent swing to the ALP in "safe" Government seats (ie those with a swing needed of greater than 6 per cent - there are 11 such seats that will fall with swings of 6-8 per cent, 4 in Queensland; and 9 more in the 8-10 per cent swing range, 3 in Queensland); and 7.1 per cent in safe Labor seats. Labor needs to win 16 seats for a majority (there are likely to still be two Independents in the new lower house of 150 members). It should win those merely among the marginal seats but there is an added bonus of some larger swings in seats previously seen as "safe" for the Libs, especially in Queensland, where Labor is coming off a low vote in 2004 and should improve because it has a native son as leader. Labor's smallest swings are in its own safe seats (where it doesn't need the extra votes) and its largest swings are in "safe" Liberal seats. In marginal seats the swing is large enough. It is likely then - subject to the Labor TPP not falling very far - that ALP can win enough seats.
- The states with the biggest swings to the ALP from the 2004 election are the ones where there are the most seats to win (again based on Newspoll's most recent quarterly figures): 11 per cent in Victoria; 9.4 per cent in South Australia; 9.2 per cent in NSW; and 9.1 per cent in Queensland. The swing is least in WA (4.4 per cent) where there are only two winnable seats and each needs 2 per cent or less. There are no separate figures for Tasmania (two marginal seats) or the NT (one). It is likely that the ALP has the votes in the right areas.
- The polls haven't moved much from the range of 54-56 per cent ALP TPP since January. There have been a couple of aberrant polls in which the ALP has been as high as 59-60 per cent TPP, and one as low as 53 per cent, but the variation has been minimal. This is a very different experience from 1998, 2001 and 2004. In each of those election years, the ALP started with an election-winning lead, but lost it. In each of those years, the lead evaporated in the six months before the announcement of the election, during the period of high government advertising spending. The 2007 period of high ad spend by the government is coming to an end (the Libs will have to pay for their own advertising during the campaign and not rely on government 'information' campaigns) and there has been no comparable movement in the polls. The experience in the last three elections has been that there was little movement in the polls after the election was called. The last campaign that saw significant movement during the election period was 1993, when John Hewson (and his GST campaign) over-cooked the stew, and Paul Keating was able to take advantage. It seems unlikely that Kruddy will do a Hewson.
- Even if you exclude Bennelong (Howard's seat) and Wentworth (Turnbull's), there are 20 winnable seats on a swing of 6 per cent or less. Labor's current position (poll average) is a swing to it of 8.3 per cent from its 2004 election TPP of 47.2 per cent.
- John Howard has said, for several years, that he will stay as leader as long as his party wants him. A couple of week's ago, he was told that a majority of the Cabinet had lost faith in him. Nonetheless he decided to stay on as leader - taking the advice of his family, not his party. (It's nice to see that the Liberal Party has now learned, well after the rest of us, the value of a Howard non-core promise.) He went on to say that his reason for so doing was that his popularity was greater than his party's. This is another aspect of the Howard Syndrome: "everything good is my doing; everything bad is someone else's fault". The extent to which the Liberal ill-fortunes are tied to Howard is incalculable, but the fact that Keating's popularity was ahead of Labor's throughout 1995-96, and indeed usually ahead of Howard when he was Opposition Leader, did not save the ALP. Howard and his policies (IR changes, inaction on global warming) are the main causes of the Liberal decline. His efforts to ameliorate the slide have been unsuccessful this year - and this is why his cobbers told him it was time to pack his swag. Howard's action subsequent to his decision to stay, ie the naming of Costello as his likely replacement, and as Subprime Minister, might not have addressed the problem. I'm sure that there is some biblical injunction against yoking an ox with a donkey but, even if there were not, I cannot see this partnership working, especially as John and Janette have still not invited Peter and Tanya to dinner, at either the Lodge or Kirribilli House, since they acquired the keys in 1996.
- In any case, there are good reasons to believe that the Evil Little Bastard has reached his use-by date. Howard wasn't in tune with the aspirations of the times in the 1980s, when he spectacularly lost the Liberal leadership to Peacock and the 1987 election, after a poorly thought out tax plan was roundly thrashed by the then Treasurer. But the last decade or so have been times that have suited him. His concentration on the economy, at the expense of the society, appears to have been a reflection of a wider view of a large segment of voters more interested in their hip pocket than in the welfare of the country. Because interest rates have been low and house prices rising, these self-interested electors in the outer suburbs have kept him in the majority. Additionally he has exploited the insular and xenophobic minority that was exposed by Hansonism, and exacerbated by the threat of Islamic terrorism. A large number of that minority formerly voted Labor in the suburban fringe. And he was conservative at a time when the mood of Australia swung towards a fear of change. Tax breaks for the self-interested, a fear campaign about 'the other' and purported toughness on boat people account largely for the wins in 1998, 2001 and 2004. But it seems now that times have changed and Howard has not: the two issues that have exposed him are Industrial Relations and global warming. His IR changes have had their greatest negative impact on the blue-collar workers in the outer suburbs who had voted for Howard clones because of the hip pocket and fear. A growing sense that something needs to be done about the impact of anthropogenic climate change at a time when Howard appears to have either ignored the issue or sloughed it off with unsatisfactory attempts at solution ('clean coal' and nuclear power, for example, but nothing substantial on renewable energy sources) has also caught the Prime Miniature out. Since Kruddy appears to be as conservative as Howard in most areas, the populace sees no difficulty in electing him, particularly as he has pledged to do something about IR, about global warming and about broadband for the people. This sense that yesterday was Howard's and today is Howard's end pervades the body politic and add to the sense of optimism.
Finally, let us remember the injunction from Toby-wan [Zeigler] and not invoke the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing by saying that the ALP will win the election, if and when it is called. Our mantra needs to be: "it is going to be close and Howard is a smart and clever politician". Nonetheless, there are good empirical data to support a feeling of benign optimism.
First written: October 2007
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