Alice Springs is a remote desert city in central Australia .
Significant issues such as migration, workforce quality, public service delivery and climate change are challenging a sustainable future for this desert city.
This scenario modelling tool presents a range of issues and possible future scenarios for Alice Springs and explores how climate change may affect these futures.
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This project uses scenario modelling to explore the potential impacts of climate change on human society and the environment of Alice Springs and integrates data from several existing sources of information such as climate model scenarios, economic data, and natural resource management information. The model accounts for the unique social and environmental aspects of Alice Springs and it was used to generate outputs requested by stakeholders during consultation and scenario modelling workshops.
The scenarios representing possible futures for Alice Springs are based on scenario narratives produced as a result of stakeholder discussions about what the future may hold for the city and the region. The outcomes of the scenarios are then explored using the model presented here.
The model does not make predictions of the future - it aims to explore trends rather than trying to predict specific outcomes. In doing so, it is intended that stakeholders consistently think in terms of the whole system and a set of possible outcomes.
Acknowledgements
This project was funded by the Natural Resource Management Board of the Northern Territory (NRMBNT).
We would like to thank the people of Alice Springs who participated in this project; it could not have succeeded without their participation in workshops. We would also like to thank Dr. Rolf Gerritsen for his facilitation of workshops and the staff of the School for Environmental Research for their input into the project.
The aerial picture of Alice Springs is used with permission from Outback Photographics