18th September 2003 - It's all in the numbers!
Say, wouldn't it be fun to see the two richest countries in South-east Asia duking it out? There's plenty to fight about here: race, land, money, and last-but-not-least religion. Can Singapore, cramming four million affluent Chinese onto the size of a postage stamp, lick its Islamic neighbour?
Early mention of Singapore as 'Temasek' (Sea Town) was made in the Malay Annals. It was a busy 14th-century trading centre. It became known as 'Singapura' (Sanskrit for 'City of the Lion') and was claimed by the rival expanding empires of Javanese Majapahit and Saimese Ayuthia. Attacked by both and divided by internal dissension, Singapura was laid to waste at the end of the 14th century.
The island remained almost deserted for 400 years, with European interest centred primarily on Java and the Moluccas. However, the opening of trade routes meant that Singapore assumed a fresh commercial and strategic value as a base from which to protect new trade routes and challenge the Dutch monopoly in the region. Therefore in 1819 a far-sighted employee of the East India Company, Sir Stamford Raffles, established on Singapore a new trading settlement. Its position was clarified in 1824 by the Anglo-Dutch Treaty which effectively demarcated the respective spheres of European influence. In 1867 Singapore came under the direct control of the British Colonial Office, with a British governor and legislative and executive councils comprised almost exclusively of Europeans.
Singapore's success as a port was underpinned by the principle of laissez-faire. Free of customs tariffs and restrictions, the port attracted a large number of (mainly Chinese) immigrants and, after the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869, there was a burgeoning trade in rubber and tin from the Malayan hinterland.
The island soon became the leading trading centre of the region after World War I. In a bid to secure its commercial and strategic position, construction began on a large naval base to protect both Singapore and the Malayan Peninsula. The defences of Singapore were therefore designed to guard against sea attack. In Feb. 1942 the island fell to a Japanese land attack from the north down the Malayan Peninsula.
With the re-establishment of British control in 1945 came a desire to re-administer the Malayan Peninsula as a single unit. However, the Federation of Malaya excluded Singapore, mainly because Malays feared that Singapore's predominantly Chinese population would upset the racial composition of the new federation. In Apr. 1945, with the restoration of civil rule, Singapore was established as a separate crown colony.
Elections held in 1959 saw Lee Kuan Yew's PAP sweep to power, winning 43 out of the 51 seats. Under Lee's leadership the PAP has remained in power ever since. In its first two years in office the PAP suffered factional disputes as the communists attempted to increase their influence. Fear of a communist Singapore influenced the leadership in Malaya to soften opposition to Singapore's membership in a future federation. In 1963 in 'Operation Coldstore', more than 100 pro-communist political, union and student leaders were arrested in Singapore. Subsequent operations further weakened the communist movement.
The Federation of Malaysia came into being in 1963 with Singapore as a constituent state. Serious race riots broke out in Singapore in July and Sept. 1964. In 1965 the central government in Kuala Lumpur forced a reluctant Lee Kuan Yew to agree that Singapore should go its own way. By legislation passed in Dec. 1965, with retrospective effect of 9 Aug. 1965, Singapore became a republic. In Jan. 1968 Britain announced its intent to withdraw its troops from Singapore by 1971 ' a threat to Singapore's economy since the bases accounted for 20% of the country's GNP. Having limited space and no natural resources, Singapore's prosperity was built upon entrepot trade as the keystone of the economy. The port of Singapore was one of the busiest in the world in terms of annual shipping tonnage. Since the mid-1960s the government focused on building up the economy, engineering the 'economic miracle' of Singapore's industrialisation. In the 1970s the GDP expanded at an average annual growth rate of 9.4%. From the beginning of the 1980s the government's economic strategy was directed towards increasing the capital and skill intensity of all sectors of the economy.
However, opposition groups claimed that success in the highly ordered 'global city' had been achieved at the expense of political freedom, especially after a number of individuals were charged in 1988 with being involved in a Marxist plot to overthrow the government and were held without trial under the Internal Security Act (ISA). Elections in Sept. 1988 returned the PAP to power with 63.2% of the vote.
The Singapore government in 2000 committed further substantial resources to boost research and development. This was in addition to education and immigration policies aimed at promoting Singapore's knowledge economy. The government also offered 'baby bonus' incentives as part of a $S3 billion scheme to boost declining birth rates and address the problem of an aging population.
After an invasion of Singapore by the Thai Ayuthia Empire in 1400, its ruler, Paramesvara, established a base in Malacca and founded the Malacca sultanate, marking 100 years of Malay economic and cultural expansion. Islam was propagated from east Bengal via trading links with Arab merchants and the sultan's conversion encouraged its spread as Malacca's territory expanded. By 1511, when Malacca fell to Portuguese forces, its control extended to Pahang, Trengganu, Kedah and Johore.
By the late 18th century, British interest in the region had increased. Tin and spices from the Malay Peninsula were identified as viable products. In 1786 the East India Company set up a trading post in Penang; Malacca (1795) and Singapore (1819) followed. The Anglo-Dutch Treaty in 1824 effectively demarcated British and Dutch spheres of influence. In 1826, Singapore, Malacca and Penang were incorporated as the Straits Settlements (SS), which in 1867 came under the direct control of the British Colonial Office.
By the early 20th century, Malaya was a leading producer of tin and rubber, and the increasing immigration of Chinese and Indian labour radically shifted its demographic composition. By 1931, Chinese accounted for 39% of the population, and the Malays 45%.
In Sept. 1940, Whitehall publicly acknowledged the primacy of Europe over the Far East. Preference was given to Europe for British provision of military supplies and advisers, leaving armed forces in Malaya ill-equipped and under-trained. Despite the belief that the British presence in Singapore would deter aggression in Southeast Asia, in 1941 Japanese forces swept down through Malaya to Singapore in little over two months.
After the war, negotiations between Britain, UMNO and the Malay rulers produced the Federation of Malaya (inaugurated in Feb. 1948), which formalised the policy of unification, left sovereign control with the sultans and introduced restricted citizenship provisions for the Chinese and Indians.
The Malaysian Communist Party, which had formed the principal opposition to the Japanese in the war, began to incite Labour unrest and, after a series of murders, the government declared a state of emergency in June 1948. By 1954, the insurgency had been significantly reduced and in 1960 the Emergency, as it was known, was lifted. But the MCP did not sign a formal peace treaty with Kuala Lumpur until Dec. 1989.
Malaysia was established in Sept. 1963, through the union of the Independent Federation of Malaya, the internally self-governing state of Singapore, and the former British colonies of Sarawak and North Borneo (Sabah). The incorporation of Singapore had been proposed by Tunku Abdul Rahman to prevent the emergence of a (predominantly Chinese) rival power on Malaya's southern coastline.
On 13 May 1969, serious clashes between the Chinese and Malay communities precipitated another state of emergency. Hundreds were killed in four days of violence.
In order to redress economic disparity between Chinese and Malays, which it claimed was the underlying cause of the 1969 disturbances, the government embarked on a New Economic Policy (NEP), designed to eradicate poverty and create a bumiputra ('prince-of-the-soil') commercial and industrial community that would hold at least 30% of the equity in every Malaysian company by 1990. A Constitutional Amendment Bill was passed, making it seditious to question the special rights accorded to Malays under the constitution.
Malaysia's development during the 1980s was guided by UMNO under the leadership of Dr Mahathir Mohamad (who became PM in 1981). Despite economic successes, concerns over political freedoms, human rights and the independence of the judiciary were expressed by opposition groups.
In the 1990s Dr Mahathir's political rhetoric increasingly distanced Malaysia from the West. Dr Mahathir refused to attend the Nov. 1993 APEC summit in Seattle, claiming that APEC was dominated by the agendas of Western nations. Earlier in 1991 he had proposed an East Asia Economic Caucus which would exclude such nations as Australia and the US who were major players in APEC.
The 1997 Asian financial crisis was to have far-reaching effects: by Jan. 1998 the value of the currency had fallen by 44% and the share market fell by 74%. Mahathir stridently criticised foreign currency speculators as exemplified by George Soros. Nonetheless, the Malaysian economy had some structural problems: an unsustainably large current account deficit; the channelling of domestic finances into unproductive sectors with large sums spent on grandiose infrastructure projects. The crisis revealed a rift between Dr Mahathir and Dep. PM Anwar Ibrahim.
On 1 Sept 1998 the government implemented strict new controls on external currency flows and pegged the ringgit to the US dollar. On 2 Sept. Anwar was dismissed from his posts of Dep. PM and Finance Minister and arrested on 20 Sept. He was sentenced (Apr. 1999) to six years for abuse of power and (on 8 Aug. 2000) to a further nine years for sodomy. In addition, he faced a five-year ban from running for public office after his release from prison. He had been at the forefront of a reformasi movement that was increasingly calling for Dr Mahathir to stand down.
Let's get ready to rumble!
| Malaysia | Singapore | |
| Population | 23,092,940 | 4,608,595 |
| Growth Rate | 1.86% | 3.42% |
| Life Expectancy | 71.67 | 80.42 |
| Fertility rate | 3.13 children/woman | 1.24 children/woman |
| Net migration | 0 | 25.76/1000 population |
| Population density | 70 people/sq km | 6,750 people/sq km |
If an aging population, already out of space, squeezing to accommodate yet more migrants was what we were looking for, Singapore would win hands down. But it isn't, so the round goes to Malaysia.
| (USD) | Malaysia | Singapore |
| GDP | $210 billion | $105 billion |
| GDP Growth | 4.2% | 2.2% |
| GDP per capita | $9,300 | $24,000 |
| Unemployment | 3.8% | 4.6% |
| Inflation | 1.9% | -.04% |
| External debt | $47.5 billion | $8.2 billion |
Malaysia's not too shabby: GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation are under control. Singapore, however, is a sheer miracle. How do you achieve such a high per-capita GDP with a miniscule external debt and negative inflation? However they've done it, Singapore wins this round.
| Malaysia | Singapore | |
| Military manpower | 3,672,517 | 1,012,498 |
| Troop density | 11 troops/sq km | 1,483 troops/sq km |
| Military expenditures | $1.69 billion | $4.47 billion |
| Military expenditure % of GDP | 2.03% | 4.9% |
On the face of it, Singapore's armed forces are outnumbered. But their budget is easily 2.5 times bigger and the land area they have to defend is much smaller. Being sandwiched between two Muslim nation would make any island state a little jumpy, but Singapore's troop density seems like overkill, doesn't it? Can anyone say 'invasionary force'? The round goes to Singapore.
It doesn't take too much for two countries to go at each other's throats. So what if they're both members of the Commonwealth? So what if they share languages and culture? An all-out war could easily be incited based on religion, race, or even the gap between have and have-not.
Yes, the ref has a bias, but the winner is fairly clear. Singapore is such an anomaly: tiny, embarrassingly rich, and Chinese - a reflection of its citizens - all the reason anyone needs to invade. But watch out, it's literally armed to the teeth.
Gee, it's a good thing that there's no oil in the region.
You want rematch, meh? Also can!
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