International Deathmatch

Somalia vs East Timor

18th November 2003 - It's all in the numbers!

The two poorest countries in the world - as judged by GDP per capita - have enough domestic problems without having to worry about invasion, but that's exactly the scenario we're going to consider. Why? Because bum-fights are fun. (Suggested by Huan.)

In the red corner - Somalia!

The Somali people, who probably originated in the highlands of Ethiopia, spread south and east from the northern steppes of present-day Somalia after their conversion to Islam in the 14th century. In 1875 Egypt laid claim to northern Somalia but was forced to withdraw in 1884, at which point the British stepped in, declaring a protectorate in 1885. Meanwhile, Italy asserted its claim on the Benadir (eastern) coast which became a protectorate in 1889. Whereas Italy strove to develop Somalia as a colony, encouraging Italians to found cotton, sugar and banana plantations, Britain made no attempt to colonise British Somaliland.

After Italy's defeat in 1943, southern Somalia was returned to Italy as a UN trusteeship in 1950 on condition that it became independent by 1960. This was achieved on 1 July 1960. 

A period of democratic rule, characterised by a proliferation of parties, corruption and electoral malpractice, followed the first national elections in Mar. 1964. This ended with the assassination of Pres. Shermakhe and, a week later on 21 Oct. 1969, a military coup which brought Maj-Gen. Mohammed Siyad Barre to power. Gen. Barre adopted a policy of 'scientific socialism'. One lasting achievement was the creation and dissemination of a written Somali language.

In 1975 thousands of Somalis died as a result of famine caused by a severe drought. In 1977 Somalia launched an attack on Ethiopia in order to enforce its claims to the Ogaden. The Siad Barre regime was ousted in January 1991; turmoil, factional fighting, and anarchy have followed for twelve years.

The victorious forces promised a broad-based government of national reconciliation, but naming Ali Mahdi Mohamed interim president reignited clan rivalries. In Nov. 1991 Ali Mahdi was forced to flee Mogadishu after USC forces under Gen. Mohammed Farrah Aydid launched a street battle in which upwards of 30,000 people (mainly civilians) were killed or wounded. Aydid proclaimed himself head of a new government and repulsed an attack on the capital in Apr. 1992 by forces loyal to deposed Pres. Barre.

As the civil war continued, the nation was in danger of starving to death as infrastructure collapsed and drought hit the country. By July, the famine had become a crisis of immense proportions, with an estimated 2000 people dying every day in and around the capital alone. A UN estimate put the number at risk of immediate death from starvation at 1.5 million people with a further 4.5 million, almost the entire population of the country, in danger. The situation was compounded by widespread corruption, banditry and looting of international food aid.

On 12 Aug. Aydid agreed to the deployment of 500 armed UN troops to protect relief operations. Huge US, French, German and Belgian airlifts of food began soon after. While the food aid flooded in, fresh outbreaks of clan violence erupted in Oct., forcing the withdrawal of aid workers from the western towns of Baidoa and Bardera. By late 1992 the concept of a government was a fiction.

On 9 Dec. 1992, some 28,000 US troops, a contingent of the French Foreign Legion and other international troops began arriving in Somalia. On 12 July 1993 a US helicopter attacked an alleged Aydid munitions base, killing numerous Somali clan leaders who had gathered for negotiations, thereby widening opposition to the US/UN presence. The US-led military and UN failed to understand the shifting alliances of Somali clan politics. The US policy of blaming Aydid was seen by many Somalis as being anti-Hawiye clan, supporting Gen. Mohammed Abshir of the SSDF. Gen. Mohamed Sa'id Hirsi "Morgan", also Darood (Marehan), also benefited from US policy which indirectly aided him in his struggle with Aydid's erstwhile Ogadeni ally, Col. Ahmed Moar Jess. The failure of US and UN initiatives in Somalia led to a military withdrawal in 1995, amid mutual accusations and self-justifications.

The country is now effectively divided into three entities: Somalia (the southern provinces centred on Mogadishu), Somaliland (the former British colonial territory in the north, mainly Issak clan, which claimed independence in 1993) and Puntland in the northeast (comprising Harti/Darod clans, it claimed independence in 1998). The frequent 'peace conferences' have strengthened moves toward 'civil society', while the power of the Islamic religious societies increasingly rival that of the warlords.

In the blue corner - East Timor!

On 30 August 1999, in a UN-supervised popular referendum, the people of East Timor voted for independence from Indonesia. During 1999-2001, pro-integrationist militias - supported by Indonesia - conducted indiscriminate violence. On 20 May 2002, East Timor was internationally recognized as an independent state and the world's newest democracy.

East Timor came under Portuguese colonial administration in 1702. Moves towards decolonisation began in 1974. A civil war in Aug. 1975 and the breakdown of Portuguese authority led to a declaration of independence by the Frente Revolucionaria de Timor Leste (Fretilin) on 27 Nov. 1975. Indonesian forces invaded on 7 Dec. 1975, and the territory was incorporated as Indonesia's 27th province in July 1976. Fretilin guerrilla elements continued to fight. Indonesia's claim to East Timor remained unrecognised by the UN, which regarded Portugal as the legal administering power. A campaign of pacification followed over the next two decades, during which an estimated 100,000 to 250,000 individuals lost their lives. 

In 1990 Indonesia and Portugal agreed in principle that a Portuguese parliamentary delegation would visit East Timor in a bid to end the long dispute. The cancellation of the visit, however, was followed by the massacre by the army of 180 civilians in the cemetery of the Santa Cruz church in Dili on 12 Nov. 1991. The massacre attracted international attention, forcing the Indonesian government to establish a judicial inquiry. 

In Jan. 1995 the Portuguese government took the Australian government to the World Court in The Hague, Netherlands, demanding that the Timor Gap Oil Agreement be declared null and void. A deal had been made in 1989 between Indonesia and Australia for a fifty-fifty split of revenues for offshore oil and gas production. Australia successfully argued that the charges should in fact have been brought against Indonesia, which does not recognise the Court's jurisdiction.

In 1996, the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to Roman Catholic Bishop Carlos Felipe Ximenes Belo and exiled Fretilin leader Jose Ramos Horta focused international attention on East Timor and caused embarrassment to Indonesia.

Violence flared in June 1997 after the Fretilin killed 17 Indonesian police and army personnel after national elections. In late June Fretilin leader David Alex was killed by the military.

Many resistance leaders hoped that the replacement of Soeharto with B J Habibie would herald a softening of Indonesia's tough stand on East Timorese self-determination. In early 1999, Pres. Habibie surprised the world, and his own cabinet, by announcing a major reversal on the question of East Timor. He declared that Jakarta was prepared to countenance the possibility of an Indonesian withdrawal and full independence, should the East Timorese reject a forthcoming referendum on allowing the province a greater degree of autonomy within Indonesia.

In the referendum, held on 30 Aug. and declared free and fair by the UN, 78% of the people showed their support for full independence, thereby rejecting Indonesia's autonomy offer. Immediately, Dili was plunged into a cycle of violence, looting and arson spearheaded by anti-independence militias.

Within three weeks of the referendum, every key building in Dili had been destroyed. With the Indonesian military not prepared to restore order, nor to make good on Jakarta's assurances of an orderly, staged withdrawal, the UN pressed Jakarta to accept a 7500-strong foreign peacekeeping force led by Australian soldiers. The arrival in June 1999 of the UN Assistance Mission on East Timor (UNAMET) initially failed to quell the unrest; however, over the following few months order was gradually restored, though thousands of refugees who were apparently forced by the militias to flee to militia-run camps in West Timor were still too frightened to return.

A new provisional government was set up (15 July 2000) with cabinet posts shared by four East Timorese and four officials of the UN Transitional Administration for East Timor (UNTAET).

On 19 Oct., Jose Ramos Horta was sworn in as Foreign Minister in the East Timorese Cabinet. Jose Xanana Gusmao, the president of the National Council of East Timorese Resistance (CNRT), was elected president of a new UN-appointed 36-member legislature, with women's activist Melina Perez as vice-president.

Let's get ready to rumble!

Round one - Population

Somalia's awfully low life expectancy makes it an unpleasant place to live in. Then again, it seems that people are being replaced as quickly as they die. The round goes to East Timor for its stable and manageable population.

Round two - Economy

Although Somalia's GDP per capita is $10 higher than East Timor, its inflation is out of control. East Timor's GDP growth clearly shows it to be mending fast. The round goes to East Timor.

Round Three - Military

Somalia, at least, has a military and could defend itself if push came to shove. However, 'decentralised' is a mild way of describing Somalia's armed forces, whose soldiers - divided by clan ties - will probably end up fighting each other. The round goes to Somalia.

The winner is - East Timor!

East Timor's problems were caused by occupation, (of which Australia was sadly a cause,) and not civil war. East Timor's violent days are clearly past, whereas stability is still wanting in Somalia.

Both are likely too busy nation-rebuilding, and dealing with civil unrest, to be concerned with each other.

Besides, no East-Timorese or Somalian could afford steerage on a container ship to go invade another country.

Sources:

• 2003 CIA World Factbook - www.cia.gov
• SBS World Guide - www.theworldnews.com.au/Worldguide/

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